This is my personal opinion. (Not a correct answer)
(Note: I am writing this on April 18, 2014. Things might be different later)
Please check the latest version distribution dashboard first.
Free app or paid app?
If you are making a paid app, it is OK to target relatively latest versions only. I say version 14 (Android 4.0+) [or version 15 (Android 4.0.3+) since not many devices use version 14 anyways]. There is a big jump from 2.x to 4.x no need an extra work to support 2.x devices when your main income is from the paid app (or in-app-purchase).
Why? I found most paid apps are purchased from the latest devices anyways. People who use older devices are pretty much satisfied with apps they already have and they don't tend to look for paid apps (compared to people who uses the latest devices). I don't make games so I am not sure if above logic applies for games too.
If your income is a free app with ad then you want to cover as much as possible. Still, I believe 2.x devices are not worth it at this time.
Think about testing
You might think the more device support the better. Not always! If your app doesn't work properly on some devices (or some older versions), they will give you bad ratings/reviews and your overall ratings will decrease. One of my apps got more popular when I actually removed the support for older devices for this reason.
Again, this is my personal opinion from my experience.
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